Russia's War Effort in Ukraine Hits Lowest Point Since June 2023

Russia is facing its worst situation in the war in Ukraine since June 2023, according to a Finnish military analysis group. The Black Bird Group, which tracks the front lines, says Russian forces lost 190 square kilometers of occupied territory in September.

This is a major change from last year, when Russia made slow but steady gains. The group shared the data on the social media platform X.

Ukraine's Counteroffensive

The shift comes from a Ukrainian counteroffensive called Operation Vivaldi. It began in May and is led by Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps in the Lyman area of northern Donetsk. On Monday, the corps commander, Brigadier General Andriy Biletskyi, said the operation had recaptured 176 square kilometers.

Pasi Paroinen, an expert with the Black Bird Group, says the numbers may not tell the full story. Ukraine has only been reporting the results of Operation Vivaldi since mid-September, and it has done so slowly and with delays. The real loss of 190 square kilometers may have happened over several months, not just in September. Paroinen also believes Ukraine may not have reported all the territory it has taken back.

Russia Still Holds a Fifth of Ukraine

It is important to remember that Russia still occupies about 120,000 square kilometers of Ukraine. That is about one-fifth of the country's land area. However, the recent Ukrainian gains show that the initiative has shifted on some parts of the front.

"Russians clearly have difficulty achieving the same steady and continuous pace of advance as last year," Paroinen said. He also said Operation Vivaldi is significant because Ukraine has managed to stop Russia from surrounding the city of Lyman on both sides. "The situation in Lyman was very bad, but now it is clear that the situation in that direction has turned in Ukraine's favor," he said.

At the same time, Russia's advance toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in Donetsk has slowed down. "Russia's advance during September was very limited," Paroinen said.

Heavy Russian Losses

Other sources also point to Russia's struggles. In September, Russian forces suffered 46,320 casualties, the highest monthly figure for 2026 and the third month in a row with over 40,000 losses. Between March and September 2026, Russian forces lost control of nearly 300 square kilometers of territory, while Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi liberated at least 147 square kilometers in the Lyman area.

The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank, reported that in September Russia captured 175.54 square kilometers but lost 256.35 square kilometers, resulting in a net loss of about 81 square kilometers.

Despite these losses, Russia is intensifying its long-range strikes on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure as winter approaches. Russia continues to lose more than 10,000 troops per week, and Ukrainian forces have been successful in the Lyman zone, pushing Russian forces further back.